Operations change scale
BLS says increased efficiency has contributed to fewer, larger farms over time.
Demand · U.S. employment projections · BLS
Farmer and farm manager
job outlook
BLS projects the broad occupation to decline 3% from 2025 to 2035, while estimating about 70,800 openings per year. The openings are expected mainly from replacement needs—not net job growth.
Employment change−3%Projected 2025–35
Estimated jobs788,700 → 762,2002025 to 2035 · rounded
Average annual openings70,800Mostly replacement needs
Two different labor-market signals
Openings can exist
while employment falls.
The projected 2025–35 change is −26,500 jobs. Annual openings measure positions expected to need replacement; they are not 70,800 newly created jobs each year.
788,7002025762,2002035
BLS employment projections · United States · 2025–35. Rounded estimates; not local hiring forecasts.
What the forecast says about change
More output per worker
can mean fewer jobs.
BLS describes long-running consolidation toward fewer, larger farms and productivity-enhancing technologies. It also notes that small farms may have slim margins and can be vulnerable to poor market conditions. This is BLS’s national explanation; it is not a prediction for every farm type or region.
Technology changes capacity
Productivity tools can affect how many workers are needed to produce agricultural output.
People still leave roles
Retirements and workers moving to other occupations can create openings even as total jobs decline.
Do not read a national forecast as your local market
“Farmer” is too broad
to be one job market.
The BLS category spans crop, livestock, dairy, greenhouse, nursery, aquaculture and other agricultural management. Opportunities depend on production type, operation size, local employers, land and climate, and whether you seek an employee role or ownership.
The projection is not an AI forecast. BLS does not isolate how much, if any, of the projected change is caused by AI.
What this means for a career decision
A projection is context,
not a personal yes or no.
Before investing in training, land or equipment, separate three questions: Is there an employee route near me? What does this particular operation need? Am I interested in owning a business with its risks, or working in agriculture in another capacity?
- Search employee jobs separately from owner/operator opportunities.
- Record which production types appear in your region and what those jobs actually ask for.
- Ask how full-time, seasonal, year-round and replacement hiring differ for those employers.
- Revisit the evidence; one vacancy snapshot is current information, not a ten-year forecast.
Follow the question
that matters to you.
Explore this question
Wages are not farm profit
What the $89,900 U.S. wage benchmark measures—and why it cannot stand in for an owner’s income.
Read this guide Explore this questionHow people enter the work
Related experience, practical routes, postsecondary options and what to verify before paying for training.
Read this guide Explore this questionWhat the working year asks of you
Seasonal crop cycles, year-round animal care, physical demands, hazards and different operation sizes.
Read this guide Explore this questionWill AI replace farmers?
Distinguish precision tools, active AI research and claims the evidence does not support.
Read this guideSources and scope
BLS national employment projections for 2025–35. Annual openings are mostly replacement needs, not new job growth. These rounded forecasts do not describe current local vacancies or attribute change specifically to AI.
Sources checked 28 September 2026. Labor figures and preparation information are U.S.-specific, not estimates for Latvia or other countries. This guide is an editorial resource, not financial, agronomic, safety, or hiring advice.
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